I’ve been thinking about how much we actually hear only the good stories. A buddy of mine kept telling me about someone who made a fortune with risky plays, but nobody ever mentions the ten others who tried the same thing and busted. It reminds me of how you only see the highlight reels, not the full picture. Do you think this “only hearing about the winners” thing is what keeps so many people chasing strategies that don’t really work???
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It’s a pattern you notice in many areas, not just games. People talk about the one startup that blew up but ignore the dozens that collapsed. Same with diets or training methods — we only hear the success stories. It skews how people judge what’s possible and pushes them into trying things that look proven but actually aren’t. In the end, most of the picture is missing.
That’s exactly what happens. People love success stories and forget the failures. I used to watch streams and think, “if they can do it, so can I.” Problem was, I didn’t see the hundreds who tried the same approach and lost. There’s a good breakdown of this survivorship bias at https://markmeets.com/posts/why-following-big-winners-strategies-in-gaming-usually-backfires/. It explains how our brains filter information in a way that makes us overestimate the chances of repeating someone else’s big win. Once I realized that, I started focusing on smaller, steady gains instead.